Booming solar PV production across Europe has led to declining capture prices and rates. Our solar PV capture prices, based on hourly EMPS price forecasts, indicates that the Stockholm price area (SE3) will face challenges in remaining profitable over the coming years.
When looking at annualised calculations, capture prices are expected to somewhat increase from 36 €/MWh in the first half of 2024 to 55 €/MWh by 2028, due to our assumption of strong growth in electricity consumption in the Nordic countries. However, capture rates are projected to fall slightly from 83% to 76% over the same period.
What does this mean in the context of the profitability of solar investments? When compared to the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for solar power generation in Norway (based on NVE data, updated to October 2024, and converted to €/MWh), the economic viability of these installations appears challenging.
The LCOE for ground-mounted solar installations in neighbouring Norway is close to 55 €/MWh, for large rooftops around 65 €/MWh, and for residential rooftops nearly 100 €/MWh. The comparable Swedish LCOE is likely a few euros lower due to slightly lower labour costs but remains at a challenging cost level. The latter two solar alternatives also benefit from avoided costs related to transmission and taxes, in addition to revenue from capture prices.
