We have observed some of the variations in simulated system prices versus simulated area prices in NO2, SE2 and DE. DE prices remain over the system prices, as the Nordic hydropower flexibility cuts the DE thermal generation costs to spread fully into the Nordic system prices in an efficient way.
In summer months we can observe that simulated system prices seek towards the SE2 area price (or northernmost price areas in general), since this oversupplied area gives downward push in the situation without north-south grid bottlenecks.
In winter months the simulated system prices are seeking closer to NO2 area price (or southernmost price areas in general), since the consumption levels are much higher this time of the year and then oversupplied northernmost price zones do not affect simulated system prices that much.
Finding an accurate fundamental method for calculating system prices in the Nordic region has been challenging. Previously, one approach involved using regression models to calculate system prices, with weights applied to each of the simulated or calculated area prices. Alternatively, full-scale simulation models that removed grid bottlenecks within the Nordic region were also used, but these did not lead to accurate system behaviour.
We are proud to announce the introduction of EMPS hourly simulation results for Nordic system prices over the traded time horizon on the Volt Power Analytics portal.
We have now adopted a method developed by SINTEF, which involves simulating all area prices first, followed by a system price simulation in which all internal grid bottlenecks are removed inside 168 h per week, but with start of reservoir levels follow the initial area price simulation for every week over the simulated time horizon.
