2024 saw record low solar PV capture rates in Germany. Build-out has continued with 17 GW added year-on-year in the last 12 months to end of February, with a pace at approx. 1.5 GW per month.
March this year saw capture rates for solar PV in Germany as low as 54%, barely above the low point in May 2024 of 49%. We would not be surprised if May 2025 set a new record low, with our simulations showing a 10th to 90th percentile range of 33-58% across our 30 weather years, especially as it seems the world has entered a trade war that can affect industrial production.
As long as the German public are billed by a monthly average electricity price, with variable fees on top, they will not be affected by any capture rates and will continue to put up cheap solar panels to reduce the high electricity bills.
Better integration with the home batteries would make the market more efficient and relieve pressure on the solar capture rates.
