Over to Finland now, and after a substantial build out of onshore wind over the last years, capture rates have remained persistently low since May of last year, with new record lows being set numerous times last year.
This year already as early as March we have seen a new record low capture rate on a healthy average onshore wind generation of 3123 MW in Finland, almost doubling from March 2024 which saw 1637 MW.
Finland has seen significant development of onshore wind in recent years, with installed capacity up 20 percent from 2023 to end of 2024 reaching 8358 MW.
In March, Finland experienced a combination of mild and windy weather conditions, with the spot price significantly influenced by the extremely wet, mild and windy conditions in Northern Sweden and Northern Norway.
Reservoir levels in northern Sweden and Norway exceeded historical highs, which boosted exports to Finland during several periods in March and lowered Finnish area prices significantly.
The capture price ended at 17.4 EUR/MWh in a situation with a base load price of 47.62 EUR/MWh, resulting in a capture rate of just 0.37. Our forecasts show weak capture rates for onshore wind for the summer season, with a normalization of conditions for November onwards.
How low will the new records be when the high summer solar penetration hits, further pushing down onshore wind capture rates?
