We recently conducted a scenario analysis in which the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant in Finland experienced an unplanned outage during Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. The impact on winter product prices is depicted in the chart.
In Finland, the price increased significantly, rising by 15.6 and 17 €/MWh for the two quarter contracts. Additionally, we observed a notable average increase of approximately 4 and 7 €/MWh in the Baltic countries.
The Swedish and Norwegian price areas were less affected, with an increase of 1 to 2.5 €/MWh, with SE3 experiencing the highest impact. However, in these hydro production areas, we also noted a 1 €/MWh increase in the Q2 2025 contract. This was due to increased hydro production in Q4/Q1, leading to lower reservoir levels and higher water levels in Q2.
Model Run Assumptions/Notes
- This model run does not take into account the likely increased production from currently mothballed thermal plants.
- The simulation method assumes competition in the affected price areas.
- In Finland, the market tends to be less competitive when some of the outer parts of the supply stack need to be activated in this hypothetical scenario.
