The Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC) is a key tool in power market modeling. It lets you bridge the gap between traded forward contracts (monthly, quarterly, yearly) and hourly spot prices – critical for valuation, risk assessment, and asset optimization.
What is the HPFC?
At its core, the HPFC disaggregates forward market prices into hourly granularity, using:
Shaping based on representative volatility profiles (e.g. weekday/weekend profiles, historical spot prices, fundamental forecasts),
Seasonal patterns (e.g. winter peaks, summer dips),
Fundamental drivers like demand, renewables, and load factors.
What Will Power Be Worth – Hour by Hour – Years Into the Future?
That’s the question the HPFC helps you answer.
In markets like Germany, where power prices are shaped by renewables, policy, fuel spreads, and volatility, the ability to bridge traded futures and hourly resolution is critical.
In the Nordic region, where power prices are driven by hydrology, weather patterns, transmission constraints, and cross-border dynamics, the ability to bridge traded system futures and zonal hourly prices is essential for accurate valuation and risk management.
Why it matters:
- Enables accurate asset valuation (e.g. batteries, CHP, PPAs — both in Germany and the Nordics)
- Supports trading strategies for peak/off-peak spreads and cross-zonal arbitrage
- Integrates seamlessly with stochastic models, hydro scheduling, and dispatch simulations — especially relevant in hydro-dominated Nordic zones.
Why use Volt’s HPFC?
- Built from actual traded futures (e.g. EEX baseload/peakload, NASDAQ)
- Captures seasonal, weekly, daily and hourly price dynamics
- Reflects fundamental trends: fuel switch, carbon, storage, renewables, hydrology
- Enables valuation of assets (PPAs, batteries, hydrogen) with hourly granularity
- Fully integrated into the Volt Portal — export-ready and API-connected and updated every business day
Result: An hourly forward curve that respects both the forward curve and hourly market dynamics.
Whether you’re a utility, trader, or industrial offtaker, our HPFC gives you the hourly view of future prices you need to operate with confidence.
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