In Southern Norway (NO2), a dry summer has left reservoirs stuck at 50–60%. Producers are conserving water, expecting prices of 71–74 EUR/MWh in Q4-25 and 80–84 EUR/MWh in Q1-26. With normal rainfall, levels stay within the historical range — but a dry, cold fall could push filling level below 40% by year-end, which could send prices sharply higher.
Up North (NO4), the picture is the opposite: reservoirs are brimming and prices will remain low and perhaps closer to zero. If rainfall is normal, levels trend back toward the median, but with wetter weather they could stay 80–95%, keeping pressure on prices.
In short: the coming months hinge on precipitation — with the South exposed to tighter balances, while the North continues to face surplus conditions.
Historical data from Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat.
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