From the parallel runs, we found three interconnectors that have a significant impact on prices by enabling increased power flows: NO3-NO1, NO5-NO2 and NO4-NO3.
We have adjusted the consumption forecasts for the years 2026-2028 significantly downward compared to our initial analyses of the price consequences of introducing a flow-based solution from September 2024.
The average flow from NO5-NO2 and NO4-NO3 has been fully included as in the parallel runs, by modelling 800 and 900 MW transmission capacity respectively.
We consider the NO1-NO3 connection to be the most critical, which is why we have simulated with three options for expanded flow: 900, 300 and 500 MW capacities in the southbound direction.
Simulation Results (900 MW)
900 MW capacity results in a strong increase for simulated power prices in the northernmost areas of Norway and Sweden, and a decrease for prices in the southernmost regions of the same countries.
For the two sensitivity studies, the impact on simulated power prices is significantly smaller.
