Dry in the south, full in the north. What does this mean for price expectations for 2026 across the Nordics?
Reservoir Levels vs. Normal
Southern Norway is running dry compared to normal, with NO2 and NO5 at just 63% of normal reservoir levels and NO3 at 72%.
Further north, NO4 is overflowing at 147% of normal. Sweden shows the same north-to-south gradient.
Prices Mirror the Picture
Where water is scarce, prices climb.
NO2 sits around €97/MWh, while NO4 — with full reservoirs — is down at around €35/MWh.
Sweden tells the same story. The hydro-rich north (SE1 and SE2) remains relatively low at around €45/MWh, rising to approximately €68/MWh in the south (SE4).
Low reservoir levels relative to normal create scarcity and support higher price expectations. High reservoir levels create surplus and downward pressure on prices.
Outlook for 2026
In both Sweden and Norway, we expect the north-south price split to persist through 2026, as it has over the past several years.
A higher-priced south and a lower-priced north remain the most likely outcome, supported by abundant hydropower resources in northern bidding zones.
