NO2 is at around a 48% filling rate — the lowest for this time of year since 1996, below both the 2022 energy crisis and the 2018 drought.
And we can’t blame it on exports.
Exports Are Not Draining the Reservoirs
In Norway, the reflex is often to blame the export cables to Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and Denmark for draining our reservoirs.
This year’s data tells us something else.
So far this year, NO2 has exported approximately 7 TWh net, 40% less than the 2024 peak. Gross exports decreased from 12.2 to 8.8 TWh, while gross imports actually tripled, from 0.7 to 2.0 TWh.
NO2 now imports cheap solar power during the daytime from the continent in around one-third of all hours.
The Main Problem Is the Weather
What is draining the reservoirs is the weather.
We’ve had two dry years in a row. Hydropower production, however, has been around 29 TWh year-to-date, which is close to normal at approximately 30 TWh and far above 2022 production of around 25 TWh over the same period.
At the same time, consumption is near a record high for NO2, at 24.2 TWh.
NO2 has had near-normal production, high demand and lower-than-normal inflow and water availability. There is no cheap surplus left to sell.
Day-ahead prices have been on a similar level to Germany.
In 2022, the price spike was driven by Europe’s gas crisis. This year, it is being driven by dry Norwegian weather.
Europe’s Battery Is Not Fully Charged
We are now approaching the high-demand season with the emptiest reservoirs in 30 years.
To refill reservoirs to normal levels by the end of 2026, NO2 would need an exceptionally wet autumn, with inflow around 66% above normal.
It is possible, but not very likely.
Europe’s battery is not really charged heading into winter.
We need rain — and snow.
