Europe has just experienced a heat wave. Portugal hit 40.3°C on May 27, France recorded its hottest May day ever, and Spain logged its highest May temperature in Catalonia since records began.
ECMWF weather forecasts point to another heat wave next week, impacting especially Iberia and southern France. Heat waves are part of the new normal. But not all electricity markets respond in the same way to heat. Ten years of consumption data tells a clear story.
Portugal
Portugal is the most heat-sensitive market in Western Europe. It is the only Western European market with a rising demand trend, driven by growing AC penetration. Every documented major heat event since 2015 shows up as above-normal consumption. The next heat wave lands on a market already running hot.
Spain
Spain’s consumption trend is negative due to structural improvements, but consumption moved above its seasonal baseline in late May when the previous heat wave hit. Spain is the epicentre of the elevated temperature forecast for next week.
Germany
Germany tells a different story. Demand is falling, a trend that predates even the COVID shock of 2020. Efficiency gains, deindustrialisation, and rapidly growing rooftop solar—which reduces measured grid demand without reducing actual electricity use—have progressively decoupled German consumption from temperature.
One More Factor
Spring 2026 has been exceptionally dry. Austria and Czechia recorded their driest spring on record. Dry soils amplify surface temperatures beyond what forecast models predict.
Data: ENTSO-E via Volt Power Analytics. Anomaly versus 2015–2024 baseline, April–June window.
