German solar has flipped the NordLink cable.
During the summer months, midday solar generation in Germany has increased from around 20 GW to 43 GW since 2021. Norway now imports about 1 GW from Germany through the middle of the day instead of exporting, before the flow flips after sunset.
We have seen this clearly throughout spring and summer 2026.
Looking ahead, we expect this trend to continue until Norway is importing at full cable capacity through the solar hours, particularly in years with higher-than-normal solar generation.
NO2 Hydropower Production Is Adjusting
NO2 reservoir output is adjusting to this new trading pattern.
The daily production minimum has moved from around 2am to noon, while the peak has shifted into the evening as the sun sets.
Producers hold water back through the cheap hours and release it into the evening ramp.
Hydrology Still Sets the Water Value
Water values themselves still depend on hydrology: inflow, snowpack and how full the reservoirs are.
But what those water values are arbitraged against is changing.
Larger intraday price spreads on the Continent mean hydropower producers can use the flexibility of their plants to ramp up when consumption — and therefore power prices — increases during the shoulder hours.
Solar Is Also Changing the Seasonal Picture
As solar generation continues to increase over the coming years, the seasonal picture will shift as well.
Summer days are likely to become cheaper, while winter evenings may carry a higher premium.
