COMPLETED PROJECT
Analyzing value of upgraded large hydropower plants in Norway
Changes in Power Market Behaviors
The south of Norway (NO1, NO2 and NO5) has become increasingly interconnected with neighbouring higher-priced power markets in recent years.
This has led to higher electricity prices and greater short-term price volatility in the Norwegian power market. In the years ahead, the central and northern regions of Norway (NO3 and NO4) are also expected to experience higher power prices and more frequent market volatility. As continental Europe continues to expand wind and solar generation, price fluctuations in Norway are set to intensify.
These developments create strong opportunities for upgrading existing hydropower plants with large reservoirs, allowing for flexible renewable energy generation, optimised power trading and long-term value creation.
Key Value Points:
- Long-term price forecasts up to 2050 are the main source of evaluation. Thirty weather scenarios provide a range of possibilities to address weather-related risks. The hourly resolution includes short-term volatility for each price zone in each weather scenario.
- Full-scale, long-term price simulations are performed using our Volt Power Analytics model with the existing power plant, as well as an alternative version of the plant with increased capacity. Simulations of power plants in a complex cascade of waterways are also provided by the model.
- After the simulations, we compare the value of power generation of the existing and upgraded versions to illustrate the value of upgrading the power plant. The capture prices before and after the upgrade are calculated on a year-by-year basis, both as an average and for the full 30-year weather spread.
- The project's robustness can be assessed by investors using sensitivity analysis of important input factors or a customised set of input data for price simulations.
How we created value
This is for owners of power plants with large reservoirs who wish to evaluate upgrading their plant capacity. Using the Volt Power Analytics model, it is possible to assess annual profits, risks and uncertainties linked to an upgrade.
The simulations provide weather-year spreads at an hourly level, alongside sensitivity analyses based on changes to input assumptions.
In addition to simulation results and long-term price forecasts running to 2050 with hourly detail, we offer tailored analyses as well as hands-on guidance and support to navigate the volatility created by renewable generation.
Volt Power Analytics has already completed four consultancy analyses of upgraded power plants and has two more projects planned for this autumn.