Europe approaches Q4 with hydro reservoirs in reasonable shape, but the strength isn’t where you would expect it.
Iberia Leads, While Nordic Hydro Remains Mixed
Iberia sits well above normal, with Spain at 130% and Portugal at 101%.
Nordic hydro is more mixed: NO4 is at 110%, while NO2 is down at 61% and SE4 at 51%.
The weak spots matter more than the averages.
Southern Norway’s NO2 is the lowest in the Nordic system and the price area with the most export exposure, with cables to Germany, the Netherlands and the UK.
France sits at 75%, while Northern Italy is at 64%.
How Does This Compare With the 2022 Energy Crisis?
Compare the current situation with 2022, and the map has essentially flipped.
Spain was at 62% of normal in the crisis year and Portugal at 48% — Europe’s two weakest systems then, but its two strongest now.
However, both countries have limited interconnector capacity to the rest of Europe.
Meanwhile, France has fallen from 87% to 75%, and NO2 from 67% to 61%.
A Healthier Overall Picture, but Risks Remain
This is not a repeat of 2022. The aggregate picture is healthier.
However, the zones that play an important role in setting prices for Northern Europe are heading into winter with less water than they had during the crisis year.
