EU gas storage is currently 68% full, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011.
Refilling to 80% this autumn does not look very likely.
Europe Would Need 136 TWh of Additional Gas
The legal target under the Gas Storage Regulation is 90%, to be reached between 1 October and 1 December.
In March, the European Commission asked EU member states to aim for 80% instead.
To reach 80% by 1 November, Europe would need to inject around 136 TWh of gas over the next seven weeks.
What Happens If Recent Autumns Repeat?
We analysed the chances of reaching that level by replaying the last five autumns’ injection profiles from today’s starting point.
Under those scenarios, Europe would enter winter with gas storage levels between 70% and 79%.
If any of the last five winters were then repeated, storage levels in March would end up between 11% and 36%.
Supply Conditions Are Also Different
This assumes that gas supply behaves as it has over the last five years.
But we already know that conditions are different.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Qatar, Europe’s third-largest LNG supplier, has been unable to deliver contracted cargoes since March.
A repeat of the cold, low-wind winter of 2024/2025 would leave European gas storage at around 11% by March.
