NO2 could be heading for one of its first quarters with net imports as the hydrological balance sits 10.5 TWh below normal.
From the front of the curve through to the beginning of autumn, NO2 water values are sitting well above simulated prices.
Low reservoir levels of 28.9%, combined with a hydrological deficit of -10.5 TWh, are putting a premium on every stored MWh. Producers would rather store water for later than generate today.
As a result, this could become one of the first quarters where NO2 runs a marginal net import position, given the current hydrological situation and the continued ramp-up of solar production on the continent.
Looking Further Ahead
Further out on the curve, the weather-year spread continues to widen on the downside.
Rapid solar build-out in Germany is increasing price volatility across the interconnectors and feeding through into Norwegian water values.
