Germany’s wind fleet continues to grow, but the output per turbine keeps falling.
In four of the last seven years, German wind production has fallen short of what installed capacity would historically have been expected to deliver. The most recent example was 2025, when wind generation came in 13 TWh below the historical baseline — roughly equivalent to a full month of Germany’s total wind output.
The dip in 2021–2022 had a clear explanation: Europe-wide wind droughts combined with the energy crisis. Wind production rebounded strongly in 2023.
So why were 2024 and 2025 weak again?
Grid Curtailment
Germany’s transmission network has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of wind capacity.
Wind turbines in northern Germany are increasingly being switched off because the grid cannot transport the electricity south. Annual curtailment costs now amount to billions of euros, representing energy that is produced but never delivered to consumers.
Weather
Weather is the second major factor.
2025 appears to have been another low-wind year across Europe. These periods tend to cluster, and annual wind variability of around ±10% is considered normal.
However, this works both ways. Strong wind years can temporarily mask underlying structural challenges, while weak wind years make them more visible.
Looking Ahead
Germany’s wind fleet recorded a capacity factor of 22% in 2025.
So far in 2026, the capacity factor is tracking at 24% between January and May. However, German wind summers have historically been weak, and seasonal forecasts currently point to below-normal wind conditions during the coming months.
As a result, the full-year picture may end up looking closer to 2025 than the spring figures currently suggest.
More capacity does not necessarily mean more reliability.
Source: ENTSO-E via Volt Power Analytics.
